Labor Day weekend sales show what’s coming for the holidays

I look at Labor Day as the first real stress test for holiday demand.  And this year, U.S. ecommerce sales were up 8% across the long weekend. On Labor day itself, ecommerce sales were up 10%, even as discounts pulled back. 

That signals high consumer intent: shoppers are willing to convert when timing and convenience line up, not just when markdowns peak.

Shoppers treated labor day as a buy day

Historically, many consumers waited for the best deals earlier in the Labor Day weekend. This year, more of them purchased on the holiday itself. And, Klaviyo data shows the biggest sales day arrived as discounts eased. 

What to do with this insight

• Use predictive analytics to identify high-intent buyers: With Klaviyo, you can forecast purchase likelihood and next order dates to pinpoint who is most likely to convert on “buy days” like Labor Day or BFCM. Target these segments with timely campaigns that emphasize urgency and convenience rather than heavy markdowns.
• Orchestrate campaigns across channels: Use Klaviyo’s omnichannel campaign builder to sync SMS, email, and push so that reminders and limited-time offers hit at the right moment. This ensures shoppers feel urgency without overwhelming them with repetitive messages.
• Test timing, not just discount depth: Set up A/B tests in Klaviyo to compare conversion rates when discounts are lighter but messaging emphasizes urgency (e.g., shipping cutoffs, limited availability). Use those results to shape BFCM calendars.

Shoppers spent even with fewer discounts

In categories like sporting goods and apparel/accessories, the volume of discounts fell while demand held. Leaner inventories and smarter margin planning ahead of the holidays likely played a role, but the broader signal is healthier: brands are balancing demand with profitability.

What to do with this insight

• Personalize offers, don’t blast them: Instead of blanket promotions, trigger discounts with Klaviyo flows based on behavior (e.g., cart size, product category, or churn risk). This lets you hold margin where demand is already strong.
• Highlight product value in campaigns: Leverage AI-powered product feeds in Klaviyo to surface bestsellers, bundles, or new arrivals to customers most likely to buy without a discount. Reinforce perceived value rather than price cuts.
• Test discount depth strategically: Run A/B tests in Klaviyo to compare conversion and margin impact of lighter versus deeper promotions. Use the results to calibrate your BFCM discount playbook.

Loyalty is on the rise

Returning customers drove 2.5 percentage points more of total revenue versus last year. Strong lifecycle programs––like welcome and post-purchase flows, replenishment, and loyalty perks––compound here. When those experiences are tuned, repeat buyers show up reliably on peak days.

What to do with this insight

• Double down on lifecycle flows: Use Klaviyo’s pre-built templates for welcome, post-purchase, replenishment, and winback flows to keep your brand top of mind. Tailor messaging by segment so that high-value buyers get early access or exclusive perks.
• Turn loyalty into a BFCM multiplier. Build a “VIP” segment of repeat buyers and give them early access to Black Friday deals, priority shipping, or bonus points in loyalty programs. Use Klaviyo’s omnichannel campaign builder to orchestrate these touchpoints across SMS, email, and push.
• Measure and optimize. Use Klaviyo cohort analysis and benchmarks to track retention against peers. A/B test lifecycle campaigns to refine cadence, subject lines, and offer types to maximize repeat revenue.

SMS was the MVP

Channel mix mattered. SMS revenue jumped 48% year over year, outpacing email growth. Roughly one-third of SMS revenue came from first-time buyers, which underscores SMS as a high-intent acquisition lever, not just a retention tool. 

Even with much higher send volumes, revenue per send stayed strong, slightly beating last year’s rate, which tells me consumers are receptive to timely, useful texts that reduce friction at checkout.

What to do with this insight

• Grow your SMS list now: Use Klaviyo’s Smart Opt-In forms, branded links, and checkout collection tools to build a compliant, high-intent SMS list before BFCM. Every new subscriber you capture today can pay off during the holidays.
• Run acquisition and conversion flows: Since one-third of SMS revenue came from new buyers, build flows that target first-time purchasers with welcome, abandoned cart, and order confirmation texts. These create a frictionless path from opt-in to purchase.
• Experiment with timing and content: Run A/B tests in Klaviyo to optimize SMS send times, discount depth, and message framing. Use AI-powered SMS Assistant for faster copy creation that still matches your brand voice.

What this means for BFCM

Labor Day is a dress rehearsal for the holiday season. The results this year prove that shoppers are entering peak season ready to spend, but they’re doing it differently than in years past. 

They’re treating holidays as buy days in their own right, converting even when discounts are lighter, and responding to brands that deliver on urgency, convenience, and personalization.

• Time your pushes around intent, not just markdown depth: The peak sales day came as discounts slowed, which underscores the importance of orchestration—fast shipping promises, cart reminders, and limited-window promos can create urgency without slashing prices.
• Protect margin with precision: Categories like apparel and sporting goods proved you can move volume with fewer, smarter discounts. Use targeted offers, not blanket markdowns, to balance demand with profitability.
• Lean into SMS for both growth and retention: With +48% YoY revenue and one-third of revenue from new buyers, SMS has become a high-intent acquisition and conversion channel. Pair it with email and other channels for coordinated reach that meets shoppers where they are.
• Double down on lifecycle: Returning shoppers contributed +2.5 pp more revenue, showing the power of loyalty programs and post-purchase experiences. Use segmentation and predictive insights to identify who’s most likely to come back, then keep them engaged with timely flows.

BFCM success will come from sharper execution. Brands that orchestrate campaigns around intent, protect margin, and invest in both SMS and loyalty will be the ones turning Labor Day’s signals into holiday season wins.