While consumer surveys suggest that holiday shopping starts earlier each year, Klaviyo’s data tells a more nuanced story. In 2024, nearly 25% of all ecommerce GMV occurred in November and December—showing that while shoppers say they start early, their wallets reflect a different reality. Peak discounting, high buyer intent, and massive revenue concentration are all still tied directly to BFCM and the holiday season.
This guide breaks down what’s really happening—and what brands should be doing now to prepare.
Peak season is intensifying
The majority of GMV still lands in November and December.
Despite the narrative that BFCM shopping is creeping earlier, Klaviyo data shows that nearly a quarter of annual ecommerce revenue still occurs during November and December. Simply, messages are more valuable during BFCM—driving more revenue per send.
And while some brands launch promotions early, the best deals still arrive closer to BFCM. In September and October, brands offered the smallest discounts of the year—so early shoppers paid more than those who waited.
And while some brands launch promotions early, the best deals still arrive closer to BFCM. In September and October, brands offered the smallest discounts of the year—so early shoppers paid more than those who waited.
What to do with this insight
Focus campaign planning and discount strategies squarely on peak season. BFCM still holds the lion’s share of GMV. Early messaging can tease or test offers, but save your strongest incentives for November and December.
Discounting alone doesn’t work
Consumers want—and convert on—bigger offers.
Shoppers expect deeper discounts during BFCM—but what works depends on your price point. Klaviyo data from 2024 shows that while discount expectations rise across the board, they vary significantly by a brand’s average order value (AOV):
- Low-AOV shoppers converted on average discounts of 33% during peak season—roughly double what worked in non-peak months.
- High-AOV shoppers needed only a modest increase to convert—around 15%, up slightly from ~10% the rest of the year.
This trend holds across verticals. The takeaway? Brands with lower price points need to offer steeper discounts to stay competitive during BFCM. But for higher-AOV or premium products, even a small bump in incentive can go a long way.
In other words, peak-season discounting works best when it’s tiered—not uniform.
In other words, peak-season discounting works best when it’s tiered—not uniform.
What to do with this insight
Instead of discounting across the board, tier your offers by AOV. Go bigger for price-sensitive, low-AOV buyers, but avoid unnecessary margin loss at the top end. With Klaviyo, you can personalize by behavior, purchase history, and lifetime value or AOV to deliver the right offer to the right shopper, at scale.
SMS converts more with less
Buyers on SMS need less incentive to act.
When it comes to driving purchases, SMS outperforms email on efficiency. In peak season, new and repeat SMS shoppers converted with significantly lower discount expectations compared to email:
- Repeat buyers via SMS converted on just a 9% discount, while repeat buyers via email needed nearly 20% off.
- New SMS buyers required 12% off, while new email buyers needed closer to 16%
The takeaway? SMS wins on cost-effective performance. You don’t have to offer as much to get a response—especially with existing customers.
What to do with this insight
Use SMS strategically for retention during BFCM. Build campaigns that target known buyers with modest incentives, maximizing margin while maintaining conversion.
SMS wins first orders in peak
SMS is a top-performing channel for acquiring new customers during peak.
SMS isn’t just a channel for VIPs or loyalty campaigns. It’s helping brands win over first-time buyers. During peak season, nearly 1 in 3 SMS orders came from new customers, compared to about 1 in 5 for email.
This makes SMS a critical channel for earning that first order, especially when shopper intent is high and consumers are open to trying new brands.
This makes SMS a critical channel for earning that first order, especially when shopper intent is high and consumers are open to trying new brands.
What to do with this insight
Use SMS to meet new shoppers in their moments of highest intent. Build flows that welcome first-time buyers with compelling offers, easy click-to-buy experiences, and follow-up messages. Use Klaviyio’s AI-powered channel affinity to make sure you send the right follow-up message to the right customer on their preferred channel (whether that’s email or SMS), at scale.
SMS revenue doubles in November
The data proves it: SMS is a peak-season powerhouse.
Across every region—the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia/New Zealand—SMS sees a spike in attributed GMV during BFCM. While SMS consistently drives revenue throughout the year, Klaviyo data from 2024 shows that the channel’s impact intensifies sharply in November and December.
In the US, SMS accounted for 14% of annual GMV in November alone, more than double its share in most other months. The UK and Australia/New Zealand followed a similar pattern, with November representing their highest SMS-attributed GMV of the year at 21% for both regions.
In the US, SMS accounted for 14% of annual GMV in November alone, more than double its share in most other months. The UK and Australia/New Zealand followed a similar pattern, with November representing their highest SMS-attributed GMV of the year at 21% for both regions.
What to do with this insight
Lean into SMS during BFCM to capitalize on peak intent. Use the months leading up to peak season to test offers and grow your list, but reserve your most compelling messages for November and December. With Klaviyo’s campaign tools and AI-powered channel affinity, you can deliver the right message on the right channel—maximizing both margin and engagement.
Built for this moment. Built for BFCM.
Klaviyo is the only B2C CRM. It brings marketing, analytics, service, and data into one unified platform. With AI-driven personalization, real-time segmentation, and insights that guide every decision, Klaviyo makes it easy to deliver the right offer, through the right channel, to the right customer—instantly.
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