Consumer intent is driving an unexpectedly strong start.
The data signals a powerful start to the 2025 holiday season in which shoppers are buying earlier, browsing more, and engaging more deeply with the brands they already know. But beneath that headline of growth lies a subtle shift in where that spending is coming from, and what it means for marketers.
In short, repeat shoppers are driving growth, SMS is surging, browsing is booming, and order values are steady. Discounts, meanwhile, are holding flat, suggesting brands are being more strategic and reserving their deepest offers for the critical BFCM window to come.
For marketers, this means early November belongs to your most loyal customers. They’re shopping early, responding to personalized offers, and anchoring GMV before the big deal days even begin.
Use predictive analytics to identify high-likelihood repeat purchasers and serve them personalized replenishment or complementary offers.
Deliver exclusive early-access or loyalty-tier offers via text message and email to make these customers feel recognized, not just retargeted.
Revenue from text messages ahead of BFCM for the same cohort of brands has climbed 37.8% year over year, outpacing even the 34.8% increase in message sends. This data is from same-store sales, which means it is looking at brands that had texts live last year, too, and excludes those that added it as a channel in 2025.
Text productivity, measured by revenue per send, is improving even as volume rises. This early-season momentum highlights a shift toward CRM-led growth. As acquisition costs climb, owned channels like text and email are proving their value as both efficient and high-converting.
Leverage Klaviyo’s automation and segmentation tools to trigger timely, personalised messages based on browse and cart activity.
Measure ROI by tracking revenue per message to continuously refine send cadence.
Shoppers are in discovery mode, but they’re not sitting on the sidelines. Product views have jumped 35% over the past two weeks, continuing the browsing boom seen earlier this quarter.
The surge points to high intent as shoppers are actively researching and comparing, even as they pace purchases ahead of the big Black Friday weekend.
Layer in AI-powered recommendations to showcase products viewed or related items.
Send educational or value-based content (e.g., holiday lookbooks or gifting guides) to nurture shoppers until they’re ready to convert.
Trigger up- and cross-sell automations post-purchase to boost AOV organically.
Identify segments most likely to spend more and tailor gift set recommendations or “complete the look” nudges for them.
The real test comes next: will consumers hold out for bigger deals, or will strong early-season performance convince brands to maintain margin discipline?
Time your strongest deals for the Cyber Week stretch when intent peaks.
Use Klaviyo’s A/B testing to test discount depth against engagement or conversion rates.
Data-driven brands are winning early.
As the BFCM crescendo approaches, brands that use their CRM data, predictive analytics, and AI-powered personalization to stay ahead of consumer intent will sustain momentum through December and beyond.
More BFCM insights
1 in 4 dollars is made in peak season, or November and December
While consumer surveys suggest that holiday shopping starts earlier each year, Klaviyo’s data tells a more nuanced story. Read more
Holiday browsing spikes just 10 days before Black Friday
The path from intent to purchase for BFCM is shorter than many think. The real bump in browsing begins only 10 days before Black Friday. Read more
BFCM is the single biggest new-customer event of the year
Brands see more new buyers during peak season than the prior 3 months combined. Read more.
BFCM 2025 is set to be the biggest in recent memory
From early shopping and deeper discounts to the rise of loyalty and SMS growth—discover six BFCM 2025 trends shaping this year’s peak season. Read more.
It’s the year of the browse
Ecommerce is in its “browsing boom.” Product views across ecommerce sites are up 37% year over year, while order growth has risen 14%. Read more.
Consumer behavior shifts are already impacting BFCM predictions
Shopping is about to hit its peak season. But this year’s surge will look different from those before it. Read more.