BFCM Insights backed by klaviyo data
What to watch for this BFCM
Klaviyo’s guide to peak season insights, discount strategies, and channel performance

BFCM 2025 is set to be the biggest and most dynamic season in recent memory.

Consumer spending is proving resilient. Despite economic headwinds, shoppers are opening their wallets again, buoyed by easing inflation and strong wage growth. At the same time, nearly half of consumers say they plan to start their holiday shopping early, signaling a shift in timing that brands can’t afford to ignore.

Layer in cultural moments—like a record-high number of adults planning to celebrate Halloween—and you have a picture of consumers who are ready to spend, celebrate, and engage across the entire season. 

The challenge for brands? Cutting through the noise with connected, strategic campaigns that capture attention in a concentrated window. Here’s what to watch—and how to win—this BFCM.
Insight one
Double-digit growth returns
Ecommerce demand isn’t slowing down
With inflation easing and consumer confidence rebounding, ecommerce sales are projected to notch nearly 12% year-over-year growth during peak season. For owned channels like email and SMS marketing, year-over-year growth is projected to be even higher, at 15% and 33%, respectively.
What to do with this insight
Consumers are signaling they’re ready to shop. It’s up to brands to show up in sync. Use Klaviyo’s omnichannel campaign builder to plan and adapt campaigns across email, SMS, and push, so every touchpoint feels cohesive.
Insight Two
Black Friday still rules, but the window is widening
Shoppers aren’t panic buying in a single burst

As usual, Black Friday will remain the biggest shopping day of the year. But Klaviyo’s own browsing data confirms it: consumers begin window shopping well before BFCM weekend.

Savvy shoppers are spreading purchases across days, devices, and channels, cherry-picking offers instead of rushing all at once. That makes it critical to deliver connected campaigns not just on Black Friday, but in the days before and after, too.

What to do with this insight
Coordinate messaging across email, SMS, and social to make sure your brand stays top of mind from browsing through check-out. With real-time reporting in Klaviyo, you can adapt quickly as consumer behaviour shifts.
Insight THREE
Make the most of the 16-day squeeze
The season is short and concentrated

Nearly half of holiday revenue will land in just 16 days, leaving little room to recover from missed opportunities. Success hinges on having the right campaigns live at the right moment.

The 10 days before Black Friday are the “window shopping” phase, when consumers browse, research, and compare. Every product view, search, and text message tap is a buying signal. Brands that capture and act on these signals will be best positioned to convert once spending peaks.

Early trends like rising Halloween spend show shoppers are primed to celebrate and buy earlier. For marketers, timing is everything. In such a compressed window, winning brands will orchestrate consistent, cross-channel campaigns and deliver personalised offers that meet each audience’s intent—ensuring every message breaks through and drives action.

What to do with this insight
Layer in AI-powered personalisation to recommend products dynamically and tailor messaging to browsing signals. Those who connect the dots during the intent phase will capture the biggest share of wallet when shoppers are ready to buy.
Insight FOUR
Loyalty is a lever
Repeat buyers will make the difference
With marketers—and margins—feeling the squeeze of rising acquisition costs, brands should invest in their customer relationships. That’s because repeat shoppers will drive the biggest revenue growth this BFCM, outpacing total revenue growth and coming in 45% higher than new shopper GMV. 
What to do with this insight
Deploy Klaviyo Customer Hub to give repeat shoppers VIP treatment. Personalised order tracking, coupon redemption, and self-service tools reduce friction and drive higher lifetime value. Pair that with automated loyalty flows in Klaviyo to reinforce why your best buyers should keep coming back.
Insight FIVE
SMS is resilient and efficient
Owned channels are still the growth engine
SMS sends are expected to surge 34% year over year, while SMS revenue per recipient remains steady. That means the increase in overall SMS volume will directly drive a 33% lift in SMS revenue—showing that SMS continues to be one of the most efficient and resilient channels during peak season.

The channel’s rapid growth this season cements its role as a go-to for retailers that want to cut through the holiday noise and reach shoppers directly. By meeting consumers where they are, on their phones, SMS keeps the path to purchase short and seamless, with the next gift just a tap away.
What to do with this insight
Integrate SMS with email, mobile push, and WhatsApp marketing so campaigns feel connected, not siloed. With AI-powered segmentation, you can tailor offers to both first-time buyers and loyal customers without losing margin.
Insight SIX
Discounts are deep, but strategic
Peak deals are table stakes
Discounts will nearly double during BFCM compared to the rest of the year, but the smartest brands won’t offer blanket markdowns on everything. Instead, they’ll segment, giving VIPs early access, offering bundles, and testing perks that preserve margins.
What to do with this insight
Run A/B tests in Klaviyo to see which promotions deliver the best ROI. With omnichannel, linear multi-touch attribution, you’ll know exactly which offers drive conversions without draining margin.

Built for this moment. Built for BFCM.

Klaviyo is the CRM built for B2C. It brings marketing, analytics, service, and data into one unified platform. With AI-driven personalisation, real-time segmentation, and insights that guide every decision, Klaviyo makes it easy to deliver the right offer, through the right channel, to the right customer—instantly.
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Hand holding a smartphone displaying a Black Friday discount offer. Text on the right reads "2025 BFCM FORECAST.

More BFCM insights

 

1 in 4 dollars is made in peak season, or November and December

While consumer surveys suggest that holiday shopping starts earlier each year, Klaviyo’s data tells a more nuanced story. Read more

Holiday browsing spikes just 10 days before Black Friday

The path from intent to purchase for BFCM is shorter than many think. The real bump in browsing begins only 10 days before Black Friday. Read more

BFCM is the single biggest new-customer event of the year

Brands see more new buyers during peak season than the prior 3 months combined. Read more.